The crypto market is constantly in motion, but there are moments when the momentum shifts in favor of altcoins. One of the most telling signals of such a shift is a sharp drop in Bitcoin dominance. The chart currently circulating on X (formerly Twitter) shows exactly that kind of scenario, with historical patterns suggesting we may be on the verge of a new altseason. Sensei, a well-known crypto analyst, shared the chart with the statement “#ALTSEASON JUST STARTED” — and it caught the attention of many.
What is Bitcoin Dominance and Why Does it Matter?
Bitcoin dominance measures Bitcoin’s share of the total cryptocurrency market capitalization. When dominance is high, it usually means investors are parking their capital mostly in Bitcoin, often out of caution or because BTC is seen as a safer haven in the volatile crypto space. When dominance falls, more money is flowing into altcoins, often triggering sharp price increases in these smaller projects.
#ALTSEASON JUST STARTED pic.twitter.com/J16ZvrW788
— Sensei (@SenseiBR_btc) August 15, 2025
Historical Patterns: Three Major Cycles
The chart highlights three clear cycles where Bitcoin dominance peaked and then dropped sharply, each time preceding a massive altcoin rally. In 2017, a drop of more than 63% triggered an altseason where some projects saw gains of 50x to even 100x. In 2021, a decline of nearly 47% paved the way for 20x to 50x gains across many altcoins.
Now, in 2025, a similar pattern seems to be emerging. Dominance sits at around 59%, and the first signs of a downward move are visible. According to the chart analysis, a drop of roughly 40% could once again spark an altseason, this time with potential gains of 10x to 20x for the fastest movers.
Technical Analysis of the Current Situation
On the chart, a descending trendline connects the peaks of recent years. Each time Bitcoin dominance hit this resistance line, a significant drop followed. The current setup shows dominance once again testing this level — historically a turning point.
Below, the monthly MACD indicator mirrors previous cycles: the lines are crossing downward while the histogram shifts toward negative territory. This signals a momentum shift from Bitcoin toward altcoins.
Why Altcoins Are Especially Interesting Now
A shift in dominance doesn’t mean all altcoins will rise, but the likelihood of broad market moves increases significantly. Historically, projects with strong communities, clear use cases, and active development benefit the most. The first phase of altseason often sees large, well-known projects like Ethereum, Solana, and Cardano outperform, followed by capital flowing into mid-cap and small-cap coins.
One major difference from previous cycles is the maturity of today’s market. In 2017, DeFi was barely a concept and NFTs were in their infancy. In 2021, the market surged with the rise of DeFi platforms and metaverse hype. In 2025, new trends such as real-world asset tokenization (RWA), AI integrations in blockchain, and cross-chain interoperability are giving the altcoin sector fresh growth potential.
Risks and Pitfalls
While the outlook is bullish, altseason also carries significant risks. The rapid price increases are often followed by sharp corrections, wiping out gains in a short time. FOMO (fear of missing out) plays a major role, and many new investors enter too late, buying high and selling low. Historical data shows that timing entries strategically and diversifying positions are key to profiting from an altseason.
The macroeconomic backdrop this year is also different from earlier cycles. Interest rate shifts, stablecoin regulations, and geopolitical tensions can all affect the flow of capital within the crypto market. It’s wise to monitor both technical signals and the broader economic picture.
Scenarios for the Coming Months
If history repeats, Bitcoin dominance could drop sharply in the coming months toward the 35–40% range. This could trigger a wave of capital flowing into altcoins, with the top 10 projects rallying first and mid- and low-cap coins following. The upside potential is significant, but so is the volatility.
In the most optimistic case, we could see a phase where multiple altcoins multiply in value within weeks, similar to the euphoric stages of late 2017 and early 2021. In a more moderate scenario, gains may be limited to the larger projects, with smaller coins rising less. A negative case — where macroeconomic pressures dampen altseason — remains possible.
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Conclusion
The combination of technical signals, historical patterns, and current market dynamics suggests a new altseason may be forming. The falling Bitcoin dominance, the MACD crossover, and the repeated resistance test together send a strong signal that the altcoin market could be entering a period of strong growth. Those who navigate this phase wisely could secure substantial gains, but should remain aware of the risks.
For more in-depth technical analyses and market insights, visit our technical analysis blog, where we track these developments closely.
