The distribution of Bitcoin across different groups of holders plays a crucial role in the development of the network. It shows how power and influence are distributed and how strong decentralization truly is at any given time. The classic distribution model that circulated within the community for years showed a clear dominance of individual holders, while companies, ETFs, governments, and miners held a smaller share. That old model still serves as a valuable foundation, but the Bitcoin ecosystem is no longer the same as it was ten years ago.
The rise of institutional investors, the growth of Bitcoin ETFs, global regulation, and improved self-custody technologies mean that the future distribution could look very different. For this reason, we have developed three concrete scenarios for 2035, each based on realistic market trends and economic dynamics. These scenarios help to identify where shifts may occur and how they could impact the future of Bitcoin.
Why Bitcoin Distribution Is So Important
The distribution of Bitcoin determines whether the network remains decentralized or slowly becomes more centralized. When an increasing number of coins ends up in the hands of large institutions, there is a risk that they could disproportionately influence the market. This could lead to reduced freedom for individual users.
The original model, in which individuals owned the majority of all Bitcoin, illustrates how widely distributed Bitcoin initially was. Our scenarios build on this historical foundation. By combining the old model with new trends such as ETF adoption, international regulation, and changing user behavior, a more complete picture emerges of how the market could evolve toward 2035.
Tracking these developments is important for investors—not only because it provides insight into market dynamics, but also because it shows how resilience and vulnerability within the network may develop over time.
The Base Scenario for 2035
The base scenario outlines a future in which Bitcoin continues to grow and mature, but without extreme shifts. Institutional presence increases, yet individuals remain the largest group of holders. Their share reaches 52 percent—slightly lower than today, but still dominant enough to ensure decentralization.
Companies and ETFs together account for 14 percent (4 percent companies and 10 percent ETFs). This aligns with the current trend of more companies adding Bitcoin to their balance sheets and ETFs becoming accessible to a broad audience. Governments play a limited but growing role in this scenario, holding 4 percent.
Miners hold approximately 3 percent in 2035. While block rewards continue to decline due to halvings, a certain amount of BTC will always remain on miners’ balance sheets. Satoshi’s wallet remains unchanged at 5.2 percent.
The number of lost coins slowly increases in this scenario, reaching 19.8 percent. Although security improves, human error and forgotten keys remain a factor. In addition, about 2 percent of the total supply will still be unmined in 2035.
This scenario reflects a stable market that continues to professionalize, while individuals remain firmly in control.
The Optimistic Scenario for 2035
In the optimistic scenario, decentralization continues to strengthen. This is driven by improvements in self-custody and increased user knowledge. More and more people manage their own Bitcoin through hardware wallets or secure multisig solutions. As a result, the share of individual holders rises to 63 percent.
Companies and ETFs play a smaller role in this scenario than in the base scenario. Companies remain around 3 percent, while ETFs hold only 7 percent of the total supply. Governments remain active, but their share stays limited to 3 percent.
The number of lost coins drops to 13.8 percent. This reflects a future in which users handle security, access credentials, digital inheritance, and education more effectively. Miners hold 3 percent of the total supply in this scenario. Once again, Satoshi’s wallet remains unchanged at 5.2 percent. In addition, about 2 percent of the supply will still be unmined in 2035.
This optimistic scenario shows a Bitcoin network that is more decentralized than ever. Power lies in the hands of millions of users worldwide, closely aligning with Bitcoin’s original vision.
The Pessimistic Scenario for 2035
The pessimistic scenario highlights the risks of centralization. If ETFs grow rapidly, self-custody becomes restricted by regulation, and institutional investment continues to increase, the share held by individuals could decline. In this scenario, individual ownership drops to 32 percent, a sharp decrease compared to both the current and historical models.
Institutions and governments, on the other hand, play a much larger role. Companies hold 4 percent, but ETFs in particular grow significantly to 20 percent. Governments increase their share to 6 percent, potentially adopting Bitcoin as a strategic reserve or using BTC in geopolitical strategies.
The number of lost coins rises sharply to 27.8 percent. While high, this reflects a world in which custodial services are used more frequently and more systems prove vulnerable to bankruptcies or inaccessible accounts. Miners hold around 3 percent in this scenario, and Satoshi’s wallet remains at 5.2 percent.
As in the other scenarios, 2 percent of the total supply will still be unmined in 2035.
This scenario paints a future in which a large amount of power lies with institutional players. While this does not necessarily have to be negative for Bitcoin’s price, it does introduce risks for decentralization and the network’s original vision.
Explanation of the Data Methodology for 2035
The scenario percentages for 2035 are based on the same methodology as the original 2024 distribution chart, using Bitcoin’s full maximum supply of 21 million as the baseline. This keeps Satoshi’s share stable at 5.2 percent, as the model calculates his absolute estimated holdings of approximately 1.09 million BTC relative to the total maximum supply.
For the remaining categories, shifts are calculated based on the latest trends from 2025, such as the growth of ETFs, the declining number of coins yet to be mined, and gradual changes in ownership among individuals, companies, and governments. Each scenario—optimistic, base, and pessimistic—is then normalized to exactly 100 percent, ensuring that the relationships remain realistic, transparent, and methodologically consistent with the original dataset.
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Conclusion
The future of Bitcoin depends on many factors: regulation, technological developments, adoption by large institutions, improvements in self-custody, and the extent to which users prefer centralized or decentralized solutions.
The three scenarios show just how different the world could look in 2035. The base scenario presents a balanced market, the optimistic scenario shows a decentralized future in which individuals retain control, and the pessimistic scenario illustrates what could happen if institutions and large players come to dominate the network.
While the exact percentages may shift, this analysis provides a clear view of the possible directions ahead. For investors, understanding these types of scenarios is highly valuable. Bitcoin does not move in a straight line—the path we choose today determines where we will stand tomorrow.
